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2024-12-13 05:25:39

CITIC Jiantou interprets the Politburo meeting in December: it opens up the market's expectation of monetary easing space in 2025. CITIC Jiantou Research Report pointed out that there are six obvious expressions of the positive signal of the Politburo meeting in December: 1. "Implementing a more active and promising macro policy"; 2. "Stabilize the property market and stock market"; 3. "Strengthening unconventional counter-cyclical adjustment"; 4. "We should vigorously boost consumption"; 5. "More active fiscal policy"; 6. "moderately loose monetary policy". The most concerned is the last expression, "moderately loose monetary policy". For most of the time, the Politburo used the word "steady" to describe the currency. This time, it adopted the rare "moderate easing", which opened the market's expectation for the monetary easing space in 2025. The "liquidity trap" recently discussed in the market does not apply to China, and monetary easing can solve a considerable part of the problem of weak domestic demand. From the perspective of trend, observing the future domestic demand trend of China, what needs to be tracked most is the currency. From the short-term emotional point of view, "stabilizing the property market and stock market" will become a short-term market trading point.At least two people were killed when a fuel depot exploded in central Italy. On December 9, local time, a fuel depot exploded in the suburb of Florence in central Italy, killing at least two people and injuring eight others. The reporter at the reception desk was informed that the explosion caused a fire, but the fire was limited to the loading and unloading area of the fuel depot. The local civil defense department asked nearby residents to close their windows and stay away from the fuel depot area. After the explosion, some railway operations from Florence to Bologna were suspended, and the expressway exit near the fuel depot was closed in both directions. It is understood that the fuel depot belongs to Eni Group, a major Italian energy company.The Syrian Embassy in Russia hangs the flag of the opposition. At noon on the 9th local time in Moscow, the Syrian Embassy in Russia has raised the flag representing the Syrian opposition in the museum, that is, the green, white and black three-star flag. On the evening of the 8th, the Syrian Embassy in Russia removed the red, white and black two-star flag that originally represented the Syrian government, and the signboard with the Russian name of the Syrian Embassy in Russia was also removed. (Xinhua News Agency)


Hua Fu Securities Interpretation of the Politburo Meeting in December: More incremental policies can be expected in the future. The Hua Fu Securities Research Report pointed out that the Politburo Meeting in December decided to implement more active and promising macro policies in economic work next year, which released major signals to the market, including: First, it proposed to implement a more active fiscal policy, which was also proposed in response to the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic in 2020. Second, it is proposed to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, which is more positive than the previous statement. Moreover, from the historical experience, the "moderately loose" monetary policy implemented in China after the last financial crisis in 2009-2010 has significantly enhanced its support for economic growth. This change in expression will send a clearer and clearer policy signal to the market. Third, it is proposed for the first time to strengthen unconventional countercyclical adjustment, and more incremental policies can be expected in the future. Fourth, after the policy adjustment, the expansion of domestic demand will be put in the first place, which highlights the importance and policy determination of expanding domestic demand next year. The follow-up consumption promotion policy may exert its efforts in many aspects, such as continuously promoting the trade-in of consumer goods, introducing incremental measures related to service consumption, and improving the support and protection of low-and middle-income people. Fifth, it is clearly proposed to stabilize the property market stock market, which will help to continuously consolidate the momentum of stabilization and recovery of the real estate market and give full play to the important functions of the capital market.HSBC Holdings: It will pay a dividend of USD 0.1 per share in the third quarter on December 19th, and HSBC Holdings (00005) announced that it will pay a dividend of USD 0.1 per share in the third quarter on December 19th, 2024.Guangfa Strategy Review December Politburo Meeting: The change of policy tone "not seen for several years" is more direct to the determination to support the stability of the equity market and the real estate market. Guangfa Strategy Review December Politburo Meeting said that although the draft of the meeting did not involve specific economic target figures, the change of policy tone was "not seen for several years": (1) "Strengthening unconventional countercyclical adjustment" appeared for the first time in the draft of the conference, and we understand that this is likely to mean that the official target of deficit ratio will be unconventional. (2) "Moderately loose monetary policy" has reappeared since July 2010, and it has been "steady" during the period. Even in the 14-15 monetary easing cycle, there was no adjustment of this wording, which paved the way for the expectation of monetary easing in 25 years; (3) The "more active fiscal policy" has reappeared since July 2020. Under the special background of the 20-year epidemic, the official target of deficit ratio in that year was set at 3.6%, which was the highest since 2010. The change of tone after four years also indicates that the deficit space in 25 years is expected to be further opened.


Hua Fu Securities Interpretation of the Politburo Meeting in December: More incremental policies can be expected in the future. The Hua Fu Securities Research Report pointed out that the Politburo Meeting in December decided to implement more active and promising macro policies in economic work next year, which released major signals to the market, including: First, it proposed to implement a more active fiscal policy, which was also proposed in response to the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic in 2020. Second, it is proposed to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, which is more positive than the previous statement. Moreover, from the historical experience, the "moderately loose" monetary policy implemented in China after the last financial crisis in 2009-2010 has significantly enhanced its support for economic growth. This change in expression will send a clearer and clearer policy signal to the market. Third, it is proposed for the first time to strengthen unconventional countercyclical adjustment, and more incremental policies can be expected in the future. Fourth, after the policy adjustment, the expansion of domestic demand will be put in the first place, which highlights the importance and policy determination of expanding domestic demand next year. The follow-up consumption promotion policy may exert its efforts in many aspects, such as continuously promoting the trade-in of consumer goods, introducing incremental measures related to service consumption, and improving the support and protection of low-and middle-income people. Fifth, it is clearly proposed to stabilize the property market stock market, which will help to continuously consolidate the momentum of stabilization and recovery of the real estate market and give full play to the important functions of the capital market.ExxonMobil is informed that it plans to renovate its French refinery early next year. According to informed sources, ExxonMobil plans to renovate its Glavin Xiong refinery in France early next year. People familiar with the matter said that the company will carry out the first-stage overhaul of the refinery in February and March, and the second-stage overhaul in 2026.Ruifeng Optoelectronics: Hubei Ruihua, a wholly-owned subsidiary, received a government subsidy of 8,820,200 yuan. Ruifeng Optoelectronics announced that Hubei Ruihua Optoelectronics Co., Ltd., a wholly-owned subsidiary, recently received a loan interest subsidy of 8,820,200 yuan from the local finance of gedian Development Zone in Ezhou City, accounting for 19.20% of the company's audited net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies in the latest fiscal year.

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